November 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC): live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is >1.54ºC at 46.0%, ahead of 1.50–1.54ºC at 27.5%. $9K traded across 6 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
WeatherclimateRecurringGlobal Temptemperature
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| >1.54ºC | 46.0% | +6.5 |
| 1.50–1.54ºC | 27.5% | 0.0 |
| 1.45–1.49ºC | 19.0% | +5.0 |
| 1.40–1.44ºC | 7.0% | -5.0 |
| 1.35–1.39ºC | 2.5% | -2.0 |
| <1.35ºC | 0.4% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for November 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for November 2026 is later revised. The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Nov" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for November 2026 is provided by NASA by January 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "November 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)"?
- As of November 6, 2026, >1.54ºC is the favorite at 46.0%, followed by 1.50–1.54ºC at 27.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 2, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $9K in total and $2K in the last 24 hours, with about $18K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.