How did "Chiefs vs. Bills" resolve?

It resolved Bills around November 2, 2025.

What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 45.0% one day before close, 45.5% one week before and – one month before.

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Resolved market scorecard

Chiefs vs. Bills: result and scorecard

Name: Chiefs vs. Bills prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved Bills. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 45.0%; a week before, 45.5%. $6.6M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Bills

resolved November 3, 2025

Price 1 day before

45.0%

Market was a coin flip

Price 7 days before

45.5%

30 days before: –

Volume

$6.6M

21 outcomes

Sports NFL (All)Games

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Bills	WON	$5.3M
O/U 50.5 · Under	WON	$895K
O/U 52.5 · Under	WON	$217K
Spread -2.5 · Bills	WON	$68K
O/U 53.5 · Under	WON	$21K
O/U 51.5 · Under	WON	$8K
Spread -1.5 · Bills	WON	$4K
1H Moneyline · Bills	WON	$3K
Bills O/U 25.5 · Over	WON	$2K
1H O/U 26.5 · Over	WON	$487
Bills O/U 16.5 · Over	WON	$480
Chiefs O/U 20.5 · Over	WON	$218
Chiefs O/U 26.5 · Under	WON	$200
Bills O/U 19.5 · Over	WON	$200
Chiefs O/U 25.5 · Under	WON	$110
Bills O/U 26.5 · Over	WON	$100
1H Spread -0.5 · Bills	WON	$100
Chiefs O/U 28.5 · Under	WON	$100
Bills O/U 27.5 · Over	WON	$100
Bills O/U 20.5 · Over	WON	$100
Chiefs O/U 27.5 · Under	WON	$100
Chiefs	LOST	$5.3M
O/U 50.5 · Over	LOST	$895K
O/U 52.5 · Over	LOST	$217K
Spread -2.5 · Chiefs	LOST	$68K
O/U 53.5 · Over	LOST	$21K
O/U 51.5 · Over	LOST	$8K
Spread -1.5 · Chiefs	LOST	$4K
1H Moneyline · Chiefs	LOST	$3K
Bills O/U 25.5 · Under	LOST	$2K
1H O/U 26.5 · Under	LOST	$487
Bills O/U 16.5 · Under	LOST	$480
Chiefs O/U 20.5 · Under	LOST	$218
Chiefs O/U 26.5 · Over	LOST	$200
Bills O/U 19.5 · Under	LOST	$200
Chiefs O/U 25.5 · Over	LOST	$110
Bills O/U 26.5 · Under	LOST	$100
1H Spread -0.5 · Chiefs	LOST	$100
Chiefs O/U 28.5 · Over	LOST	$100
Bills O/U 27.5 · Under	LOST	$100
Bills O/U 20.5 · Under	LOST	$100
Chiefs O/U 27.5 · Over	LOST	$100

Price history to resolution

BillsO/U 50.5 · UnderO/U 52.5 · UnderSpread -2.5 · Bills

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 45% the day before is getting it wrong in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for November 2 at 4:25PM ET: If Kansas City Chiefs wins, the market will resolve to “Chiefs”. If Buffalo Bills wins, the market will resolve to “Bills”. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Chiefs vs. Bills" resolve?: It resolved Bills around November 2, 2025.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 45.0% one day before close, 45.5% one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?: $6.6M across 21 outcomes.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.