NATO downs another Russian drone before Russia x Ukraine peace talks?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a NATO military downs another Russian drone before Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If neither a NATO military downing a Russian drone nor Russia x Ukraine peace talks occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If a NATO military downs another Russian drone before Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place before a NATO military downs another Russian drone, this market will resolve to “No”. A NATO military will be considered to have downed another Russian drone if a NATO member’s military downs a Russian drone by any means (kinetic, jammer, etc.) after market creation. A “Russian drone” refers to any drone that, based on a consensus of credible reporting, was launched from territory under Russia’s de facto control or was operated or directed by Russian forces. Where attribution remains ambiguous, the drone’s model and characteristics will be considered supporting evidence. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (CEST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the incident, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution source for whether a NATO military has downed a Russian drone will be a consensus of credible reporting. Russia x Ukraine peace talks will be considered to have taken place if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive