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Home / Markets / Lowest temperature in Paris on November 5?
Resolved market scorecard

Lowest temperature in Paris on November 5?: result and scorecard

Resolved 4°C. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 20.0%; a week before, –. $5K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

4°C
resolved November 5, 2026

Price 1 day before

20.0%
Market leaned the wrong way

Price 7 days before

–
30 days before: –

Volume

$5K
11 outcomes

WeatherRecurringHide From NewParisFrance

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
4°CWON$269
3°CLOST$1K
0°CLOST$1K
1°CLOST$1K
2°CLOST$469
5°CLOST$170
-1°CLOST$90
7°C or higherLOST$75
-2°CLOST$65
-3°C or belowLOST$45
6°CLOST$25

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%11-0311-0411-05
4°C3°C0°C1°C
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 20% the day before is getting it wrong in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature reported at Paris-Le Bourget Airport (LFPB) on 5 Nov '26. The qualifying value is the lowest temperature reported in the hourly temperature remark of any routine (METAR) observation for Paris-Le Bourget Airport (LFPB) on that date, in tenths of a degree Celsius as reported. A report whose line begins with SPECI is a special observation and does not count. Every other report is routine, including one issued off the nominal hour and one that carries no METAR or SPECI label. For How to Read the METAR Report, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Weather/How+to+Read+the+METAR+Report.pdf The hourly temperature remark is the group beginning with the letter T followed by exactly eight digits. After the T, one digit for sign (0 positive, 1 negative) and three for tenths of a degree Celsius give the temperature; the following four are the dew point and are not used. T01390133 is 13.9°C; T10171022 is −1.7°C. If a routine observation does not carry the hourly temperature remark, the temperature group in the body of that observation governs for that observation, in whole degrees Celsius as reported. It appears as temperature and dew point separated by a slash, with M marking a negative value: 18/12 is 18°C; M11/M17 is −11°C. An observation that reports no temperature in either place is disregarded. Each market in this event states its range in whole degrees Celsius. The qualifying value is rounded to the nearest whole degree, with a value ending in exactly half rounded up to the next higher whole degree, and that whole Celsius value determines which range contains it. For example, 13.9°C counts as 14°C; 17.4°C counts as 17°C; 16.5°C counts as 17°C; −1.7°C counts as −2°C; −8.5°C counts as −8°C. An observation counts if its time stamp, converted to the station's local time (including any daylight-saving shift in effect), falls on the observation

Frequently asked questions

How did "Lowest temperature in Paris on November 5?" resolve?
It resolved 4°C around November 5, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 20.0% one day before close, – one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?
$5K across 11 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.