What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 100.0% one day before close, 92.5% one week before and 90.5% one month before.

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Home / Markets / Kamala Harris wins the election but loses Michigan?

Resolved market scorecard

Kamala Harris wins the election but loses Michigan?: result and scorecard

Name: Kamala Harris wins the election but loses Michigan? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 100.0%; a week before, 92.5%. $27K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

resolved November 11, 2024

Price 1 day before

100.0%

Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

92.5%

30 days before: 90.5%

Volume

$27K

1 outcome

Kamala deprec USA Election michigain Maps US Election

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Yes	LOST	$27K
No	WON	$27K

Price history to resolution

Yes

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris wins the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election but loses the popular vote in the state of Michigan. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve in accordance with Polymarket's Presidential election market (https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024) and Michigan Presidential Election market (https://polymarket.com/event/michigan-presidential-election-winner).

Frequently asked questions

How did "Kamala Harris wins the election but loses Michigan?" resolve?: It resolved No around November 5, 2024.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 100.0% one day before close, 92.5% one week before and 90.5% one month before.
How much was traded?: $27K across 1 outcome.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.