Josh Turek runs behind Rob Sand by...?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

The 2026 Iowa general election is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. Josh Turek is the Democratic nominee for United States Senate in Iowa, and Rob Sand is the Democratic nominee for Governor of Iowa. This market will resolve based on how many percentage points Josh Turek’s vote share in the 2026 Iowa U.S. Senate election falls below Rob Sand’s vote share in the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election. If Turek’s vote share exceeds Sand’s, this market will resolve to “Runs ahead”. Each candidate’s vote share will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for that candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in that candidate’s respective race, including write-in votes, calculated from the certified vote totals without rounding. For a race that includes a runoff, ranked-choice, or other multi-round process, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing the named candidate and at least one other candidate. If the reported difference falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the two vote shares are equal, this market will resolve to “0-3 points behind.” If either candidate withdraws or is otherwise removed from the general election ballot such that they receive no recorded votes, or if a candidate’s vote share cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that candidate will be considered to have received 0% of the vote. The resolution source for this market will be the certified results published by the Iowa Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.