IEA asks France to release oil stocks by...?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

On October 1, 2026, Reuters reported that the United States had told France and Germany to release emergency diesel stocks or face a potential US diesel export ban, as Washington presses European countries to draw down their reserves to ease record diesel prices. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-tells-france-germany-release-diesel-stocks-or-face-us-export-ban-sources-say-2026-10-01/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if the International Energy Agency (IEA) requests that France release emergency oil stocks between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying request may take either of the following forms: (i) the IEA Member countries formally agree to a new coordinated emergency release of oil stocks (an IEA collective action) within the market's timeframe, under which France is requested, allocated, or assigned a contribution of emergency oil stocks; or (ii) the IEA, its Executive Director, or an authorized representative thereof officially and explicitly calls on, requests, or asks France or the French government to release, draw down, or make available its emergency oil stocks, including any previously committed but not yet released volumes. An explicit request addressed to a group of countries also qualifies if France is expressly named as one of the countries being asked to release stocks. For the purposes of this market, "emergency oil stocks" means strategic or emergency stocks of crude oil and/or petroleum products (including diesel), such as those held by France's Société Anonyme de Gestion de Stocks de Sécurité (SAGESS). General calls or requests addressed to IEA members, EU member states, or European countries as a group that do not specifically name France will not qualify, unless France is assigned a contribution as described in (i). General statements supporting or suggesting possible stock releases, without an explicit request applicable to France, will not qualify. Discussions, consultations, or proposals for a collective action will not qualify unless they independently satisfy (ii). Requests made prior to market creation, including France's allocation under the IEA collective action agreed in March 2026, will not qualify. However, a new request made within the market's timeframe to implement or accelerate a previous commitment will qualify. Merely describing or reaffirming an exi