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How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is 1-3 at 97.0%, ahead of 4-6 at 2.5%. $78K traded across 3 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

97.0%
1-3 · Trade →

24h move

+4.3
pts · 7d +2.6

Volume

$78K
24h $275 · liquidity $6K

Closes

December 1, 2026
25 days left

WeatherclimatehurricaneHurricanes

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
1-397.0% +4.3+2.6$19K3.5¢
4-62.5% +0.3-0.9$18K2.9¢
7+0.1% 0.00.0$7K0.1¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%10-0610-2111-06
1-34-67+

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying 1-3 at 97% risks 97¢ to win 3¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?"?
As of November 6, 2026, 1-3 is the favorite at 97.0%, followed by 4-6 at 2.5%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on December 1, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$78K in total and $275 in the last 24 hours, with about $6K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.