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Home / Markets / Highest temperature in Mexico City on July 1?
Resolved market scorecard

Highest temperature in Mexico City on July 1?: result and scorecard

Resolved 24°C. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 23.0%; a week before, –. $70K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

24°C
resolved July 2, 2026

Price 1 day before

23.0%
Market leaned the wrong way

Price 7 days before

–
30 days before: –

Volume

$70K
11 outcomes

WeatherRecurringHide From NewDaily TemperatureMexico

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
24°CWON$16K
25°CLOST$12K
20°CLOST$10K
22°CLOST$6K
23°CLOST$6K
21°CLOST$5K
26°CLOST$4K
19°CLOST$4K
27°C or higherLOST$4K
18°CLOST$3K
17°C or belowLOST$729

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%06-3007-0107-02
24°C25°C20°C22°C
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 23% the day before is getting it wrong in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Highest temperature in Mexico City on July 1?" resolve?
It resolved 24°C around July 1, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 23.0% one day before close, – one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?
$70K across 11 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.