How did "Paraguay vs. France - More Markets" resolve?

It resolved France (-1.5) · Paraguay around July 4, 2026.

What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 40.5% one day before close, – one week before and – one month before.

Home / Markets / Paraguay vs. France - More Markets

Resolved market scorecard

Paraguay vs. France - More Markets: result and scorecard

Name: Paraguay vs. France - More Markets prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved France (-1.5) · Paraguay. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 40.5%; a week before, –. $49.6M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

France (-1.5) · Paraguay

resolved July 4, 2026

Price 1 day before

40.5%

Market was a coin flip

Price 7 days before

–

30 days before: –

Volume

$49.6M

45 outcomes

Sports Games Soccer FIFA World Cup

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
France (-1.5) · Paraguay	WON	$17.1M
Team to Advance · France	WON	$6.8M
O/U 2.5 · Under	WON	$4.8M
O/U 1.5 · Under	WON	$4.8M
O/U 3.5 · Under	WON	$3.5M
France (-2.5) · Paraguay	WON	$2.9M
O/U 0.5 · Over	WON	$2.0M
1st Half O/U 0.5 · Under	WON	$1.3M
France (-3.5) · Paraguay	WON	$825K
1st Half O/U 1.5 · Under	WON	$639K
France O/U 1.5 · Under	WON	$607K
France O/U 2.5 · Under	WON	$549K
Paraguay O/U 0.5 · Under	WON	$375K
O/U 4.5 · Under	WON	$337K
O/U 5.5 · Under	WON	$319K
France (-5.5) · Paraguay	WON	$293K
Paraguay (-1.5) · France	WON	$250K
Paraguay O/U 2.5 · Under	WON	$143K
France O/U 0.5 · Over	WON	$138K
O/U 6.5 · Under	WON	$116K
France (-4.5) · Paraguay	WON	$99K
1st Half O/U 2.5 · Under	WON	$83K
Paraguay O/U 1.5 · Under	WON	$63K
O/U 7.5 · Under	WON	$49K
Paraguay (-2.5) · France	WON	$43K
France 1st Half O/U 1.5 · Under	WON	$27K
O/U 8.5 · Under	WON	$26K
2nd Half O/U 1.5 · Under	WON	$24K
France 1st Half O/U 0.5 · Under	WON	$20K
Paraguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 · Under	WON	$17K
Paraguay 1st Half O/U 1.5 · Under	WON	$14K
2nd Half O/U 0.5 · Over	WON	$6K
Paraguay 2nd Half O/U 1.5 · Under	WON	$5K
Paraguay (-3.5) · France	WON	$4K
Paraguay (-4.5) · France	WON	$3K
France 2nd Half O/U 1.5 · Under	WON	$3K
Paraguay (-5.5) · France	WON	$3K
2nd Half O/U 2.5 · Under	WON	$3K
France 2nd Half O/U 0.5 · Over	WON	$2K
Paraguay 2nd Half O/U 0.5 · Under	WON	$1K
France (-1.5) · France	LOST	$17.1M
Team to Advance · Paraguay	LOST	$6.8M
O/U 2.5 · Over	LOST	$4.8M
O/U 1.5 · Over	LOST	$4.8M
O/U 3.5 · Over	LOST	$3.5M
France (-2.5) · France	LOST	$2.9M
O/U 0.5 · Under	LOST	$2.0M
1st Half O/U 0.5 · Over	LOST	$1.3M
Both Teams to Score	LOST	$1.2M
France (-3.5) · France	LOST	$825K
1st Half O/U 1.5 · Over	LOST	$639K
France O/U 1.5 · Over	LOST	$607K
France O/U 2.5 · Over	LOST	$549K
Paraguay O/U 0.5 · Over	LOST	$375K
O/U 4.5 · Over	LOST	$337K
O/U 5.5 · Over	LOST	$319K
France (-5.5) · France	LOST	$293K
Paraguay (-1.5) · Paraguay	LOST	$250K
Paraguay O/U 2.5 · Over	LOST	$143K
France O/U 0.5 · Under	LOST	$138K
O/U 6.5 · Over	LOST	$116K
France (-4.5) · France	LOST	$99K
1st Half O/U 2.5 · Over	LOST	$83K
Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?	LOST	$78K
Paraguay O/U 1.5 · Over	LOST	$63K
Both Teams to Score in First Half	LOST	$58K
O/U 7.5 · Over	LOST	$49K
Paraguay (-2.5) · Paraguay	LOST	$43K
Will the Match Go to Extra Time?	LOST	$42K
France 1st Half O/U 1.5 · Over	LOST	$27K
O/U 8.5 · Over	LOST	$26K
2nd Half O/U 1.5 · Over	LOST	$24K
France 1st Half O/U 0.5 · Over	LOST	$20K
Paraguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 · Over	LOST	$17K
Paraguay 1st Half O/U 1.5 · Over	LOST	$14K
Both Teams to Score in Second Half	LOST	$8K
2nd Half O/U 0.5 · Under	LOST	$6K
Paraguay 2nd Half O/U 1.5 · Over	LOST	$5K
Paraguay (-3.5) · Paraguay	LOST	$4K
Paraguay (-4.5) · Paraguay	LOST	$3K
France 2nd Half O/U 1.5 · Over	LOST	$3K
Paraguay (-5.5) · Paraguay	LOST	$3K
2nd Half O/U 2.5 · Over	LOST	$3K
France 2nd Half O/U 0.5 · Under	LOST	$2K
Paraguay 2nd Half O/U 0.5 · Over	LOST	$1K

Price history to resolution

France (-1.5) · ParaguayTeam to Advance · FranceO/U 2.5 · UnderO/U 1.5 · Under

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 41% the day before is getting it wrong in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

More markets for the FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for July 4 at 5:00 PM ET.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Paraguay vs. France - More Markets" resolve?: It resolved France (-1.5) · Paraguay around July 4, 2026.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 40.5% one day before close, – one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?: $49.6M across 45 outcomes.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.