Fed Decision in June?: result and scorecard
Resolved No change. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.6%; a week before, 99.4%. $164.6M traded in total.
Result
Price 1 day before
Price 7 days before
Volume
fomcEconomic PolicyJerome PowellFed RatesFed
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| No change | WON |
| 50+ bps decrease | LOST |
| 25 bps increase | LOST |
| 25 bps decrease | LOST |
| 50+ bps increase | LOST |
Price history to resolution
Scorecard
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Frequently asked questions
- How did "Fed Decision in June?" resolve?
- It resolved No change around June 17, 2026.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.6% one day before close, 99.4% one week before and 98.0% one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $164.6M across 5 outcomes.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.