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Resolved market scorecard

Eurovision Winner 2026: result and scorecard

Resolved Bulgaria. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 3.6%; a week before, 0.7%. $193.9M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Bulgaria
resolved May 17, 2026

Price 1 day before

3.6%
Market was confident and wrong

Price 7 days before

0.7%
30 days before: 1.1%

Volume

$193.9M
50 outcomes

EurovisionMusicAwardsCulture

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
BulgariaWON$6.7M
PolandLOST$8.4M
AustriaLOST$8.1M
AlbaniaLOST$8.0M
AzerbaijanLOST$6.8M
SerbiaLOST$6.7M
ArmeniaLOST$6.7M
MontenegroLOST$6.6M
FinlandLOST$6.6M
EstoniaLOST$6.3M
GeorgiaLOST$6.2M
NorwayLOST$6.1M
LithuaniaLOST$6.1M
LatviaLOST$6.1M
San MarinoLOST$5.9M
SwitzerlandLOST$5.8M
PortugalLOST$5.7M
CroatiaLOST$5.7M
BelgiumLOST$5.4M
MoldovaLOST$5.4M
IsraelLOST$5.4M
ItalyLOST$4.9M
GreeceLOST$4.9M
United KingdomLOST$4.8M
AustraliaLOST$4.6M
GermanyLOST$4.6M
MaltaLOST$4.4M
CyprusLOST$4.3M
FranceLOST$4.3M
RomaniaLOST$4.2M
LuxembourgLOST$4.0M
UkraineLOST$3.9M
CzechiaLOST$3.5M
DenmarkLOST$3.5M
SwedenLOST$3.2M
Country BLOST$0
Country CLOST$0
Country DLOST$0
Country ELOST$0
Country FLOST$0
Country GLOST$0
Country HLOST$0
Country ILOST$0
Country JLOST$0
Country KLOST$0
Country LLOST$0
Country MLOST$0
Country NLOST$0
Country OLOST$0
OtherLOST$0

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%12-0602-2505-17
BulgariaPolandAustriaAlbania
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 4% the day before is getting it wrong in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 wins. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Eurovision Winner 2026" resolve?
It resolved Bulgaria around May 16, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 3.6% one day before close, 0.7% one week before and 1.1% one month before.
How much was traded?
$193.9M across 50 outcomes.

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Eurovision Asia Winner 2026Eurovision Asia 3rd Place 2026Eurovision Asia 2026: Jury WinnerEurovision Asia 2nd Place 2026Eurovision Asia 2026: Public Vote WinnerEurovision 2027 ParticipantsAll live marketsMarkets resolving this weekPrediction market scorecard

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.