How did "Democratic VP nominee?" resolve?

It resolved Tim Walz around August 22, 2024.

What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 29.6% one day before close, 9.3% one week before and 0.9% one month before.

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Democratic VP nominee?: result and scorecard

Name: Democratic VP nominee? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved Tim Walz. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 29.6%; a week before, 9.3%. $128.5M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:16 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Tim Walz

resolved August 6, 2024

Price 1 day before

29.6%

Market leaned the wrong way

Price 7 days before

9.3%

30 days before: 0.9%

Volume

$128.5M

27 outcomes

Biden Kamala deprec USA Election Politics Dem Nominee

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Tim Walz	WON	$12.9M
Josh Shapiro	LOST	$16.5M
Mark Kelly	LOST	$12.8M
Andy Beshear	LOST	$11.5M
Pete Buttigieg	LOST	$9.0M
Michelle Obama	LOST	$6.6M
J. B. Pritzker	LOST	$5.8M
Gretchen Whitmer	LOST	$5.8M
Other Man (Incl. Peters)	LOST	$5.3M
Roy Cooper	LOST	$5.2M
Hillary Clinton	LOST	$5.0M
Kamala Harris	LOST	$4.6M
Gavin Newsom	LOST	$4.3M
Other Woman	LOST	$3.4M
Wes Moore	LOST	$2.6M
Barack Obama	LOST	$2.3M
Mark Cuban	LOST	$2.3M
Raphael Warnock	LOST	$1.8M
Joe Biden	LOST	$1.7M
Tim Ryan	LOST	$1.4M
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	LOST	$1.3M
Elizabeth Warren	LOST	$1.2M
Tammy Duckworth	LOST	$1.1M
Amy Klobuchar	LOST	$1.1M
Tammy Baldwin	LOST	$1.1M
Bernie Sanders	LOST	$1.0M
William McRaven	LOST	$838K

Price history to resolution

Tim WalzJosh ShapiroMark KellyAndy Beshear

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 30% the day before is getting it wrong in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This is a market on the selection of the Democratic vice presidential nominee for the upcoming election.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Democratic VP nominee?" resolve?: It resolved Tim Walz around August 22, 2024.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 29.6% one day before close, 9.3% one week before and 0.9% one month before.
How much was traded?: $128.5M across 27 outcomes.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.