What are the odds that China ballistic missile launch by December 31?

As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 9.5% and No at 90.5%, on $18K of total volume.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$18K in total and $5 in the last 24 hours, with about $12K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / China ballistic missile launch by December 31?

Live market data

China ballistic missile launch by December 31?: live odds and probabilities

Name: China ballistic missile launch by December 31? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 9.5% (+1.0 pts in 24h). $18K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

9.5%

No 90.5% · Trade →

24h move

+1.0

pts · 7d -7.0

Volume

$18K

24h $5 · liquidity $12K

Closes

January 1, 2027

56 days left

China missile Geopolitics

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
Yes	9.5%	+1.0	-7.0	$18K	1.0¢
No	90.5%	-1.0	+7.0	$18K	–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution. Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 10% risks 10¢ to win 91¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that China ballistic missile launch by December 31?: As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 9.5% and No at 90.5%, on $18K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $18K in total and $5 in the last 24 hours, with about $12K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Related on BetG8

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?China x Japan military clash before 2027?Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Best Chinese AI Company end of November?All live markets Markets resolving this week Prediction market scorecard

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.