China Annual Inflation 2026: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is 0.6 – 1.0% at 60.0%, ahead of 1.1 – 1.5% at 21.0%. $125K traded across 9 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
ChinaMacro IndicatorsEconomyInflationCPI
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| 0.6 – 1.0% | 60.0% | -0.5 |
| 1.1 – 1.5% | 21.0% | 0.0 |
| 0.1 – 0.5% | 17.3% | -0.3 |
| 2.5%+ | 2.9% | +0.6 |
| 1.6 – 2.0% | 2.5% | 0.0 |
| <-1.0% | 1.4% | -0.1 |
| -0.4 – 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.0 |
| -0.9 – -0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| 2.0-2.4% | 0.3% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China. This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report. The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)". Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "China Annual Inflation 2026"?
- As of November 6, 2026, 0.6 – 1.0% is the favorite at 60.0%, followed by 1.1 – 1.5% at 21.0%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 11, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $125K in total and $97 in the last 24 hours, with about $20K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.