Who is favored in "Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?"?

As of November 6, 2026, ↑ 1550 is the favorite at 54.0%, followed by ↑ 1600 at 7.0%.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$239K in total and $35 in the last 24 hours, with about $8K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December

Live market data

Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

The market favorite is ↑ 1550 at 54.0%, ahead of ↑ 1600 at 7.0%. $239K traded across 4 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:05 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

54.0%

↑ 1550 · Trade →

24h move

+3.0

pts · 7d +3.5

Volume

$239K

24h $35 · liquidity $8K

Closes

January 1, 2027

56 days left

AI Benchmarks Recurring Tech Big Tech google

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
↑ 1550	54.0%	+3.0	+3.5	$56K	16.0¢
↑ 1600	7.0%	-0.1	-0.1	$27K	3.9¢
↑ 1650	3.9%	+0.1	+0.4	$10K	3.1¢
↑ 1700	2.9%	-0.1	-0.4	$10K	2.3¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:05 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

↑ 1550↑ 1600↑ 1650↑ 1700

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying ↑ 1550 at 54% risks 54¢ to win 46¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?"?: As of November 6, 2026, ↑ 1550 is the favorite at 54.0%, followed by ↑ 1600 at 7.0%.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $239K in total and $35 in the last 24 hours, with about $8K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.