Resolved market scorecard
Bird flu vaccine in 2025?: result and scorecard
Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.8%; a week before, 99.6%. $262K traded in total.
Result
No
resolved January 1, 2026
Price 1 day before
99.8%
Market was confident and right
Price 7 days before
99.6%
30 days before: 98.0%
Volume
$262K
1 outcome
vaccineBird FluH5N1Science2025 Predictions
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| Yes | LOST |
| No | WON |
Price history to resolution
Yes
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.
Scorecard
A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against H5N1 receives full FDA approval between January 1, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the FDA, including their official list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states).
Frequently asked questions
- How did "Bird flu vaccine in 2025?" resolve?
- It resolved No around December 31, 2025.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.8% one day before close, 99.6% one week before and 98.0% one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $262K across 1 outcome.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.