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Live market data

Base iPhone 18 released by...?: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is April 30, 2027 at 89.0%, ahead of March 31, 2027 at 77.0%. $5K traded across 3 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:16 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

89.0%
April 30, 2027 · Trade →

24h move

-0.5
pts · 7d +5.0

Volume

$5K
24h $6 · liquidity $9K

Closes

May 1, 2027
176 days left

KPIsTechAppleBig TechApple Event

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
April 30, 202789.0% -0.5+5.0$3K2.0¢
March 31, 202777.0% -1.0-0.5$1K6.0¢
February 28, 202714.0% +0.5-0.5$5912.0¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:16 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%09-1910-1311-06
April 30, 2027March 31, 2027February 28, 2027

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases the base iPhone 18 by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The base iPhone 18 means the standard model of Apple's iPhone 18 generation, marketed by Apple as "iPhone 18" with no further designation. The iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, iPhone 18e, iPhone Air 2, the foldable iPhone, and any phone released under any other name will not qualify, regardless of when it is released. In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase and delivery or pickup by the general public in the United States within the specified timeframe. An announcement, unveiling, or pre-order period alone is not sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying April 30, 2027 at 89% risks 89¢ to win 11¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Base iPhone 18 released by...?"?
As of November 6, 2026, April 30, 2027 is the favorite at 89.0%, followed by March 31, 2027 at 77.0%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on May 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$5K in total and $6 in the last 24 hours, with about $9K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.