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Home / Markets / Bank of Canada decision in March?
Resolved market scorecard

Bank of Canada decision in March?: result and scorecard

Resolved No change. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 98.9%; a week before, 97.3%. $65K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:00 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

No change
resolved March 18, 2026

Price 1 day before

98.9%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

97.3%
30 days before: 94.7%

Volume

$65K
4 outcomes

Global RatesEconomyEconomic PolicyCanadaWorld

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
No changeWON$0
25 bps decreaseLOST$65K
50+ bps decreaseLOST$0
IncreaseLOST$0

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%12-2402-0403-18
No change25 bps decrease50+ bps decreaseIncrease
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 99% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's March 2026 meeting. If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its March 18, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Bank of Canada decision in March?" resolve?
It resolved No change around March 18, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 98.9% one day before close, 97.3% one week before and 94.7% one month before.
How much was traded?
$65K across 4 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.