Bank of Canada decision in January?: result and scorecard
Resolved No change. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 98.5%; a week before, 98.2%. $257K traded in total.
Result
Price 1 day before
Price 7 days before
Volume
Global RatesCanadaEconomyWorld
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| No change | WON |
| 25 bps decrease | LOST |
| Increase | LOST |
| 50+ bps decrease | LOST |
Price history to resolution
Scorecard
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's January 2026 meeting. If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its January 28, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Frequently asked questions
- How did "Bank of Canada decision in January?" resolve?
- It resolved No change around January 28, 2026.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 98.5% one day before close, 98.2% one week before and 91.5% one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $257K across 4 outcomes.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.