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Resolved market scorecard

AWS service disrupted by April 30?: result and scorecard

Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.9%; a week before, 89.5%. $166K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

No
resolved May 5, 2026

Price 1 day before

99.9%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

89.5%
30 days before: 50.0%

Volume

$166K
1 outcome

amazonTechBig TechoutageAWS

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
YesLOST$166K
NoWON$166K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%03-2504-1405-05
Yes
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Amazon Web services experiences any service interruption event with a severity classification of “disrupted” by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count. Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.” This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe. If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).

Frequently asked questions

How did "AWS service disrupted by April 30?" resolve?
It resolved No around April 30, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.9% one day before close, 89.5% one week before and 50.0% one month before.
How much was traded?
$166K across 1 outcome.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.