Arizona passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

Arizona Proposition 144 (HCR 2001) is a legislatively referred measure that is scheduled to appear as a ballot measure in Arizona in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would amend the Arizona Constitution to specify that only citizens of the United States may vote and register to vote in Arizona elections and require voters to present government-issued proof of identity to cast a ballot, whether in person or by mail, among other items. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Arizona statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Arizona, including the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/).