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Home / Markets / World Cup: Golden Ball Winner
Resolved market scorecard

World Cup: Golden Ball Winner: result and scorecard

Resolved Rodri. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 5.3%; a week before, 1.0%. $17.2M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Rodri
resolved July 20, 2026

Price 1 day before

5.3%
Market was confident and wrong

Price 7 days before

1.0%
30 days before: 1.6%

Volume

$17.2M
41 outcomes

SoccerSportsworld cupgolden ballFIFA World Cup

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
RodriWON$3.2M
Lamine YamalLOST$2.8M
Lionel MessiLOST$2.1M
Kylian MbappéLOST$2.1M
Ousmane DembéléLOST$1.8M
Harry KaneLOST$1.2M
Declan RiceLOST$1.1M
Jude BellinghamLOST$884K
PedriLOST$821K
Erling HaalandLOST$451K
Michael OliseLOST$231K
Cristiano RonaldoLOST$178K
Bruno FernandesLOST$108K
Vinícius Jr.LOST$84K
VitinhaLOST$34K
Florian WirtzLOST$25K
GaviLOST$19K
NeymarLOST$15K
Rayan CherkiLOST$11K
Bukayo SakaLOST$10K
Player ALOST$0
Player BLOST$0
Player CLOST$0
Player DLOST$0
Player ELOST$0
Player FLOST$0
Player GLOST$0
Player HLOST$0
Player ILOST$0
Player JLOST$0
Player KLOST$0
Player LLOST$0
Player MLOST$0
Player NLOST$0
Player OLOST$0
Player PLOST$0
Player QLOST$0
Player RLOST$0
Player SLOST$0
Player TLOST$0
OtherLOST$0

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%06-0406-2707-20
RodriLamine YamalLionel MessiKylian Mbappé
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 5% the day before is getting it wrong in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the player who wins the Golden Ball award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by FIFA rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

How did "World Cup: Golden Ball Winner" resolve?
It resolved Rodri around July 20, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 5.3% one day before close, 1.0% one week before and 1.6% one month before.
How much was traded?
$17.2M across 41 outcomes.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.