What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at – one day before close, – one week before and – one month before.

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Home / Markets / Will the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average be 6.6% or high

Resolved market scorecard

Will the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average be 6.6% or higher on October 13?: result and scorecard

Name: Will the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average be 6.6% or higher on October 13? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved Yes. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at –; a week before, –. $1K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:32 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Yes

resolved October 14, 2022

Price 1 day before

–

Unknown

Price 7 days before

–

30 days before: –

Volume

$1K

1 outcome

All

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Yes	WON	$1K
No	LOST	$1K

Price history to resolution

Not enough price history yet for a chart.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at – the day before is getting it wrong in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States is at 6.60% or above for the week ending on October 13 ET, 2022, according to the resolution source. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If for any reason there is no data point for this market's resolution date on either of the sources listed below, information for the nearest previous available date will be used. The primary resolution source for this market is Freddie Mac, specifically https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. The data that will be looked at is the "30Y FRM" as indicated on the graph titled "Primary Mortgage Market Survey®". If the resolution source is unavailable, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US will be looked at instead. If both sources are unavailable other credible reporting may be used.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Will the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average be 6.6% or higher on October 13?" resolve?: It resolved Yes around October 13, 2022.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at – one day before close, – one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?: $1K across 1 outcome.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.