Resolved market scorecard
Will Michael Olise Transfer to Real Madrid?: result and scorecard
Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.7%; a week before, 99.7%. $50K traded in total.
Result
No
resolved September 2, 2026
Price 1 day before
99.7%
Market was confident and right
Price 7 days before
99.7%
30 days before: 98.3%
Volume
$50K
1 outcome
SoccerSportsreal madridbayern munichSoccer Transfers
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| Yes | LOST |
| No | WON |
Price history to resolution
Yes
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.
Scorecard
A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Michael Olise transfers from Bayern Munich to Real Madrid by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Loan deals will qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Bayern Munich and Real Madrid and a consensus of credible media reporting.
Frequently asked questions
- How did "Will Michael Olise Transfer to Real Madrid?" resolve?
- It resolved No around August 31, 2026.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.7% one day before close, 99.7% one week before and 98.3% one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $50K across 1 outcome.
Related on BetG8
Cruzeiro EC vs. EC Bahia - More MarketsUEFA Champions League: 2027 ChampionAl Qadisiyah Saudi Club vs. Al Fayha Saudi ClubCruzeiro EC vs. EC BahiaAl Kholood Saudi Club vs. Al Khaleej Saudi ClubAl Hazem SC vs. Al Nassr Saudi ClubAbha Saudi Club vs. Al Shabab Saudi ClubCruzeiro EC vs. EC Bahia - Halftime ResultAll live marketsMarkets resolving this weekPrediction market scorecard
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.