What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.6% one day before close, 99.3% one week before and 94.5% one month before.

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Home / Markets / Will El Salvador/Bukele launch a memecoin before April?

Resolved market scorecard

Will El Salvador/Bukele launch a memecoin before April?: result and scorecard

Name: Will El Salvador/Bukele launch a memecoin before April? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.6%; a week before, 99.3%. $37K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

resolved April 1, 2025

Price 1 day before

99.6%

Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

99.3%

30 days before: 94.5%

Volume

$37K

1 outcome

Memecoins Crypto $LIBRA

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Yes	LOST	$37K
No	WON	$37K

Price history to resolution

Yes

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

his market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of El Salvador or Nayib Bukele is directly involved in the deployment of a memecoin between February 14, 6:00 PM ET and March 31, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Only tokens which are confirmed to have been launched by the government of El Salvador or Nayib Bukele with consent or authorization will qualify. Tokens which are announced through hacked accounts or which otherwise do not meet this criteria will not qualify. Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), officially recognized stablecoins, or other cryptocurrencies which are not widely considered to be memecoins will not qualify. Central African Republic's President Faustin-Archange Touadéra's announcement of $CAR is an example of a qualifying memecoin.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Will El Salvador/Bukele launch a memecoin before April?" resolve?: It resolved No around March 31, 2025.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.6% one day before close, 99.3% one week before and 94.5% one month before.
How much was traded?: $37K across 1 outcome.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.