What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 98.0% one day before close, 98.0% one week before and 97.3% one month before.

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Home / Markets / Will Conor McGregor return to the UFC by November 13?

Resolved market scorecard

Will Conor McGregor return to the UFC by November 13?: result and scorecard

Name: Will Conor McGregor return to the UFC by November 13? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 98.0%; a week before, 98.0%. $45K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:19 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

resolved November 14, 2023

Price 1 day before

98.0%

Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

98.0%

30 days before: 97.3%

Volume

$45K

1 outcome

All Sports UFC mma conor mcgregor

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Yes	LOST	$45K
No	WON	$45K

Price history to resolution

Yes

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 98% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Conor McGregor participates in an officially sanctioned UFC bout between April 5 and November 13, 2023 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An "officially sanctioned UFC bout" includes all official UFC events, such as pay-per-view, Fight Night, and any other event sanctioned by the UFC. Appearances by Conor McGregor on The Ultimate Fighter reality TV show will not count towards the resolution of this market. Any announcements made by Conor McGregor or the UFC regarding his return or retirement will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market may only resolve to "No" once its end date has passed and Conor McGregor has not participated in an officially sanctioned UFC fight in that time.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Will Conor McGregor return to the UFC by November 13?" resolve?: It resolved No around November 13, 2023.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 98.0% one day before close, 98.0% one week before and 97.3% one month before.
How much was traded?: $45K across 1 outcome.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.