Resolved market scorecard
Will China invade Taiwan in May?: result and scorecard
Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.7%; a week before, 98.2%. $38K traded in total.
Result
No
resolved June 1, 2024
Price 1 day before
99.7%
Market was confident and right
Price 7 days before
98.2%
30 days before: –
Volume
$38K
1 outcome
ChinaTaiwanglobal politicsworld affairsinvasion
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| Yes | LOST |
| No | WON |
Price history to resolution
Yes
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.
Scorecard
A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.
Frequently asked questions
- How did "Will China invade Taiwan in May?" resolve?
- It resolved No around May 31, 2024.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.7% one day before close, 98.2% one week before and – one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $38K across 1 outcome.
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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.