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Home / Markets / Who will meet with Iran by June 30?
Resolved market scorecard

Who will meet with Iran by June 30?: result and scorecard

Resolved J.D. Vance. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 91.5%; a week before, 34.0%. $198K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

J.D. Vance
resolved June 21, 2026

Price 1 day before

91.5%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

34.0%
30 days before: –

Volume

$198K
5 outcomes

VanceTrumpIran CeasefireDiplomatic meetingWitkoff

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
J.D. VanceWON$93K
Steve WitkoffWON$30K
Jared KushnerWON$25K
Donald TrumpLOST$27K
Marco RubioLOST$23K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%05-2706-1307-01
J.D. VanceSteve WitkoffJared KushnerDonald Trump
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 92% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Who will meet with Iran by June 30?" resolve?
It resolved J.D. Vance around June 30, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 91.5% one day before close, 34.0% one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?
$198K across 5 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.