Which players will retire before 1 July 2027?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Olivier Giroud at 67.0%, ahead of Cristiano Ronaldo at 52.5%. $3K traded across 15 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Olivier Giroud | 67.0% | -2.0 |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 52.5% | +23.5 |
| Luka Modric | 50.5% | 0.0 |
| Thomas Muller | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Angel Di Maria | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Edin Dzeko | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Wojciech Szczesny | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Robert Lewandowski | 48.5% | 0.0 |
| Karim Benzema | 48.5% | 0.0 |
| James Rodriguez | 48.5% | +1.0 |
| Luis Suarez | 38.5% | -6.0 |
| Manuel Neuer | 27.5% | 0.0 |
| Ivan Perisic | 18.0% | 0.0 |
| Marco Reus | 17.1% | -0.3 |
| Lionel Messi | 6.7% | +1.7 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:19 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player announces his retirement from professional football on or before June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To resolve "Yes", the announcement must clearly state that the player is retiring from professional club football, and must come from the player himself, his official representatives, or his club. Retirement from international football alone does not qualify. The retirement must be intended to take effect immediately or before the start of the next club season following the announcement. A player who is without a club but has not announced his retirement has not retired for the purposes of this market. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the player or his club. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Which players will retire before 1 July 2027?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Olivier Giroud is the favorite at 67.0%, followed by Cristiano Ronaldo at 52.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on July 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $3K in total and $50 in the last 24 hours, with about $1K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.