When will the next Atlantic or Pacific hurricane form?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve according to the date on which the next hurricane forms in the Atlantic, Eastern North Pacific, or Central North Pacific basin, as classified by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) or the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC). Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes". If no qualifying hurricane forms by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "No hurricane by November 30" will resolve to "Yes" and all other outcomes will resolve to "No". As of market creation, no tropical cyclone in these basins was classified as a hurricane. A hurricane forms when the NHC or CPHC first issues a product (a Public Advisory, including intermediate and special advisories, or a Tropical Cyclone Update) classifying a tropical cyclone in one of these basins as a hurricane, meaning Category 1 or stronger on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The formation date is the date in ET of that product's issuance time, not the time the system's winds are estimated to have first reached hurricane strength. Each outcome's date range is inclusive of its start and end dates. Tropical storms, subtropical storms, tropical depressions, post-tropical cyclones, and systems in the Western North Pacific or any other basin will not be considered for resolution. This market will resolve as soon as the first qualifying product is issued. Later downgrades, reclassifications, and post-season best-track revisions, including Tropical Cyclone Reports, will not be considered. If the NHC or CPHC corrects or withdraws a product as erroneous before this market resolves, the corrected product will be used; otherwise the product stands. No substitute data provider will be used. The resolution source for this market will be products issued by the National Hurricane Center or the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. Please note that this market is about hurricane classifications according to the NHC and CPHC, not according to any other agencies or sources.