How strong will In-fa be?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

This event contains two independent markets, each with its own resolution source. Every market in this event may resolve to "No". "Violent": This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) assigns In-fa the intensity class "Violent" (10-minute sustained winds of 105 kt or more) in the "Intensity" field of any analysis it publishes for the storm (JMA typhoon number 2631) by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en. "Super Typhoon": This market will resolve to "Yes" immediately once the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) issues a Tropical Cyclone Warning for In-fa (JTWC tropical cyclone 30W) whose title designates the storm a "Super Typhoon" (1-minute sustained winds of 130 kt or more), provided that warning is issued by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html. For both markets, only the operational analysis or warning issued by the named agency by the deadline counts. Forecast entries, other agencies' classifications, and post-season best track data will not be considered for resolution. Once a qualifying analysis or warning has been issued, the relevant market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of subsequent revisions, unless the issuing agency corrects it as erroneous before that market resolves. If the agency stops issuing analyses or warnings for In-fa without a qualifying classification, the relevant market will resolve to "No" at that time. No substitute data provider will be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" immediately once the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) issues a Tropical Cyclone Warning for In-fa (JTWC tropical cyclone 30W) whose title designates the storm a "Super Typhoon", provided that warning is issued by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". JTWC designates a "Super Typhoon" when a warning lists maximum sustained winds (one-minute average) of 130 kt or more. Only the designation in a warning's title will be considered. Forecast intensities within a warning, prognostic reasoning, Significant Tropical Weather Advisories, and post-season best track data will not be considered for resolution. Classifications issued by any agency other than JTWC, including JMA, will not be considered for resolution. If JTWC issues its final warning for In-fa without having designated it a "Super Typhoon", this market will resolve to "No" at that time. No substitute data provider will be used. If JTWC corrects or amends a warning before this market resolves, the corrected warning will be used. Otherwise the issued warning stands. Temporary display glitche