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Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is $100M at 98.7%, ahead of $200M at 98.0%. $3.9M traded across 10 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

98.7%
$100M · Trade →

24h move

+0.2
pts · 7d +0.3

Volume

$3.9M
24h $44K · liquidity $410K

Closes

January 1, 2028
421 days left

FDVCryptoPre-MarketVariational

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
$100M98.7% +0.2+0.3$86K0.9¢
$200M98.0% +0.1+4.7$83K0.1¢
$300M94.2% +1.0+0.4$284K1.6¢
$500M86.5% +1.00.0$1.0M1.0¢
$800M71.0% -1.5-2.5$535K2.0¢
$1B58.5% 0.0+3.5$926K1.0¢
$2B26.1% +4.2-4.3$483K0.1¢
$3B14.0% +0.4+2.9$168K2.7¢
$4B5.5% -0.2+1.5$189K0.5¢
$5B3.5% -0.1+2.1$115K0.7¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%12-2706-0211-06
$100M$200M$300M$500M

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying $100M at 99% risks 99¢ to win 1¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?"?
As of November 6, 2026, $100M is the favorite at 98.7%, followed by $200M at 98.0%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2028. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$3.9M in total and $44K in the last 24 hours, with about $410K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.