What are the odds that Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?

As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 1.7% and No at 98.3%, on $253K of total volume.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$253K in total and $6 in the last 24 hours, with about $25K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?

Live market data

Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 1.7% (0.0 pts in 24h). $253K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:19 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

1.7%

No 98.3% · Trade →

24h move

0.0

pts · 7d -7.9

Volume

$253K

24h $6 · liquidity $25K

Closes

January 1, 2027

56 days left

Israel x Iran Israel Middle East World Lebanon

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
Yes	1.7%	0.0	-7.9	$253K	1.0¢
No	98.3%	0.0	+7.9	$253K	–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:19 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Lebanon officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Lebanon, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 2% risks 2¢ to win 98¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?: As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 1.7% and No at 98.3%, on $253K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $253K in total and $6 in the last 24 hours, with about $25K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.