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Home / Markets / How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 28 -
Resolved market scorecard

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 28 - October 4?: result and scorecard

Resolved 0. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 90.5%; a week before, 47.5%. $9K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:11 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

0
resolved October 5, 2026

Price 1 day before

90.5%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

47.5%
30 days before: –

Volume

$9K
7 outcomes

WeatherclimateRecurringearthquakeEarthquakes

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
0WON$5K
1LOST$3K
2LOST$550
3LOST$441
more than 5LOST$213
5LOST$144
4LOST$136

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%09-2609-3010-05
0123
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 91% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 28, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data. If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

Frequently asked questions

How did "How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 28 - October 4?" resolve?
It resolved 0 around October 5, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 90.5% one day before close, 47.5% one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?
$9K across 7 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.