GFL announces take-private in 2026?: live odds and probabilities
Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 45.0% (+0.5 pts in 24h). $0 has traded on this market.
Yes probability
24h move
Volume
Closes
M&AGFLFinancetakeovermergers and acquisitions
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 45.0% | +0.5 |
| No | 55.0% | -0.5 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:12 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve to “Yes” if GFL Environmental announces that it has entered into a definitive agreement with any third-party to take the company under completely private ownership by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must provide for the acquisition of 100% of GFL Environmental Inc.'s outstanding publicly traded equity, such that GFL's shares would cease to be listed on public exchanges. A merger with or acquisition by another company in which GFL shareholders receive publicly listed equity, or in which GFL or its successor remains publicly traded, will not qualify. Letters of intent, memoranda of understanding, announcements of exploration of options, offers, negotiations, or other non-definitive actions will not qualify. Agreements covering only a portion of the company will not qualify. A qualifying announcement of a definitive agreement occurring within the specified timeframe will qualify regardless of whether the deal closes or is later withdrawn. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from GFL Environmental.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if GFL Environmental announces that it has entered into a definitive agreement with any third-party to take the company under completely private ownership by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must provide for the acquisition of 100% of GFL Environmental Inc.'s outstanding publicly traded equity, such that GFL's shares would cease to be listed on public exchanges. A share repurchase or buyback program will only qualify if it is part of a definitive agreement resulting in the acquisition of 100% of GFL's publicly traded equity and the delisting of its shares. A merger with or acquisition by another company in which GFL shareholders receive publicly listed equity, or in which GFL or its successor remains publicly traded, will not qualify. Letters of intent, memoranda of understanding, announcements of exploration of options, offers, negotiations, or other non-definitive actions will not qualify. Agreements covering only a portion of the company will not qualify. A qualifying announcement of a definitive agreement occurring within the specified timeframe will qualify re
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- What are the odds that GFL announces take-private in 2026?
- As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 45.0% and No at 55.0%, on $0 of total volume.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $0 in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $14 of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.