Resolved market scorecard
Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: result and scorecard
Resolved Harry Kane. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 70.9%; a week before, 72.5%. $103.9M traded in total.
Result
Harry Kane
resolved October 27, 2026
Price 1 day before
70.9%
Market leaned the right way
Price 7 days before
72.5%
30 days before: 55.9%
Volume
$103.9M
89 outcomes
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| Harry Kane | WON |
| Kylian Mbappé | LOST |
| Lamine Yamal | LOST |
| Lionel Messi | LOST |
| Ousmane Dembélé | LOST |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | LOST |
| Rodri | LOST |
| Fabian Ruiz | LOST |
| Erling Haaland | LOST |
| Michael Olise | LOST |
| Jude Bellingham | LOST |
| Pau Cubarsi | LOST |
| Vinícius Júnior | LOST |
| Mohamed Salah | LOST |
| Vitinha | LOST |
| Declan Rice | LOST |
| Pedri | LOST |
| Achraf Hakimi | LOST |
| Bruno Fernandes | LOST |
| Desire Doue | LOST |
| Julian Alvarez | LOST |
| Raphinha | LOST |
| Cole Palmer | LOST |
| Lautaro Martinez | LOST |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | LOST |
| Luis Diaz | LOST |
| Federico Valverde | LOST |
| Dominik Szoboszlai | LOST |
| Bukayo Saka | LOST |
| Rodrygo | LOST |
| Enzo Fernandez | LOST |
| Ferran Torres | LOST |
| Gavi | LOST |
| João Neves | LOST |
| Marc Cucurella | LOST |
| Willian Pacho | LOST |
| Gabriel Magalhães | LOST |
| Dayot Upamecano | LOST |
| Sadio Mané | LOST |
| Marquinhos | LOST |
| Nuno Mendes | LOST |
| Julián Quiñones | LOST |
| William Saliba | LOST |
| Other | LOST |
| AH | LOST |
| AI | LOST |
| AJ | LOST |
| AK | LOST |
| AL | LOST |
| AM | LOST |
| AN | LOST |
| AO | LOST |
| AP | LOST |
| AQ | LOST |
| AR | LOST |
| AS | LOST |
| AT | LOST |
| AU | LOST |
| AV | LOST |
| AW | LOST |
| AX | LOST |
| AY | LOST |
| AZ | LOST |
| BA | LOST |
| BB | LOST |
| BC | LOST |
| BD | LOST |
| BE | LOST |
| BF | LOST |
| BG | LOST |
| BH | LOST |
| BI | LOST |
| BJ | LOST |
| BK | LOST |
| BL | LOST |
| BM | LOST |
| BN | LOST |
| BO | LOST |
| BP | LOST |
| BQ | LOST |
| BR | LOST |
| BS | LOST |
| BT | LOST |
| BU | LOST |
| BV | LOST |
| BW | LOST |
| BX | LOST |
| BY | LOST |
| BZ | LOST |
Price history to resolution
Harry KaneKylian MbappéLamine YamalLionel Messi
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.
Scorecard
A market that prices the eventual outcome at 71% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Frequently asked questions
- How did "Ballon d'Or Winner 2026" resolve?
- It resolved Harry Kane around January 1, 2027.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 70.9% one day before close, 72.5% one week before and 55.9% one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $103.9M across 89 outcomes.
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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.