The Ledger: our calls, graded in public
Anyone can sound sharp before kickoff. The only honest test is writing the call down in public, dating it, and grading it after the result — including the misses. This page is that record. Each entry links to the original article, which stays online unedited (updates are appended, never rewritten).
Grading: HIT — the specific published read was borne out. MISS — it wasn't. PUSH — we presented both sides without a lean, or the result didn't test the claim. OPEN — not yet resolved. We grade the read, not the result of a coin flip — a fairly-priced 43% favourite losing is not a miss of the price analysis, but we say so in advance, not after.
| Date | The call | What happened | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 12 | England's 4-point gap (16.9% books vs 12.8% Polymarket) was the board's widest disagreement; our lean: the book number was the sharper input (market read) | After England's QF win, Polymarket travelled the larger distance — 12.8% → ~22% — converging toward the books. Gap closed to vig-only by Jul 14. | HIT |
| Jul 13 | France vs Spain: "close to even for 90 minutes — France's edge lives in minutes 91–120"; flagged the 16-point extra-time premium as scenario-dependent (match read) | Spain won 2-0 inside 90. The coin-flip read held; the extra-time premium expired worthless — exactly the risk described. | HIT |
| Jul 13 | Over 2.5 goals at -114: "reasonable models genuinely disagree — which usually means the price is fair"; no lean published (same article) | Match finished 2-0 — Under. | PUSH |
| Jul 14 | Argentina vs England: presented the streak case (+205) against the market's England lean; both sides published, no pick (match read) | Argentina won 2-1 in 90 — the streak case cashed; the market's 39% England lean lost. | PUSH |
| Jul 16 | Final pricing: "the two venues agree net of vig — the consensus itself is the signal"; 58/42 (market read) | Books drifted -164/+134 → -160/+125 by Jul 17; Polymarket held 58/42. Settles July 19. | OPEN |
| Jul 17 | Third-place match "historically the softest-priced fixture of any World Cup"; France -110 opening line flagged (final read) | Settles July 18. | OPEN |
Running record: 2 hits · 0 misses · 2 pushes · 2 open. Small sample — that's the point of keeping the ledger public from day one. When we're wrong, it stays on this page.
Nothing here is betting advice — it's a public audit of our analysis. Prices referenced are snapshots from the linked articles. 18+.